The Strait of Hormuz: An Analysis of the Blockade Strategy through the Lens of the Three Pillars of Deterrence

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran (Corresponding Author).

2 M.A. in International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

3 M.A. in Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.

10.22126/mps.2025.12691.1085

Abstract

The recent military attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States have once again brought the issue of closing the Strait of Hormuz into focus. Iran's official threat to close this critical energy chokepoint, followed by the ratification of a plan to do so by the Iranian Parliament, has raised questions about the justifiability of using this as a strategic lever. This study uses deterrence theory and a qualitative approach to examine the feasibility of blocking the Strait from the perspective of Iran's national interests. The research question is: How does the threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz impact Iran's national interests, as viewed through the lens of deterrence theory? The research hypothesis suggests that maintaining a credible and believable threat of closure, without actually implementing it, is more effective and less costly than actually carrying out the blockade. The findings show that a practical blockade of the Strait would have significant economic and diplomatic consequences for Iran and its allies. Therefore, from a cost-benefit perspective and within the framework of deterrence logic, closing the Strait would be considered a "Strategic Risk" and could only be justified in existential threat.

Keywords

References

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  • Receive Date: 25 August 2025
  • Revise Date: 04 September 2025
  • Accept Date: 12 September 2025

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