Climate Change; State Legitimacy and the Potential for Redefining the Political in Mesopotamia

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding author).

2 Researcher, Conflict and Cooperation in the Middle East Research Group, Center for Scientific Research and Strategic Studies of the Middle East, Tehran, Iran.

10.22126/mps.2026.12872.1102

Abstract

Climate change, as one of the most significant challenges of the contemporary era, has profound effects on political structures and the legitimacy of states. In the Mesopotamia region, which has a long history of environmental changes and water resource crises, this issue is of particular importance. In light of the foregoing, the research question can be formulated as follows: How can climate change influence the legitimacy of states and provide an opportunity for the redefinition of the political? The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between climate crises and the redefinition of political power in Mesopotamia, and to investigate whether environmental changes can pave the way for the formation of new political norms and institutions. It is also hypothesized that climate change not only poses a threat to the stability of states but can also act as a driving force in redefining the political and rebuilding state legitimacy. Through the analysis of qualitative data, it can be estimated that climate crises, by exerting pressure on vital resources, limit and diminish the ability of states to respond to needs, leading to the emergence of new political solutions and structures. Understanding and managing the impacts of climate change is essential for maintaining legitimacy and political stability in vulnerable regions such as Mesopotamia, and the redefinition of the political can be a strategic response to this challenge. In addition to economic and social pressures, climate change affects the legitimacy of states and their capacity to manage vital resources. A state that fails to respond promptly and effectively to environmental crises will face declining public trust and increasing dissatisfaction.

Keywords


Adul-Ameer, H. S., & Al-Shybani, A. K. J. (2024). “Social justice from the perspective of geopolitics”. South Eastern European Journal of Public Health, 320–330. https://doi.org/10.70135/seejph.vi.1072
Alkış, M., & Sever, A. (2024). “Which legitimization for de facto states? The case of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq”. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 27(3), 309–332. https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2024.2379658
Arı, I. (2025). Carbon pricing in emerging economies: Challenges and opportunities for Türkiye (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003570820
Arif, I., & Dutta, N. (2024). “Legitimacy of government and governance”. Journal of Institutional Economics, 20, e14. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137423000334
Ateşoğlu, A., Aydoğdu, M. H., Yenigün, K., Sanchez-Paus Díaz, A., Marchi, G., & Bulut, F. Ş. (2025). “Insights from Earth Map: Unraveling environmental dynamics in the Euphrates–Tigris Basin”. Sustainability, 17(16), 7513. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17167513
Ayal, B. A., Alem, Y. T., & Amanu, M. A. (2025). “Promises of reform and governance realities: Examining the legitimacy crisis in Abiy Ahmed’s Ethiopia”. Public Organization Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11115-025-00851-y
Batalov, O., & Palamarchuk, M. (2023). “The concept of political stability and political conflicts”. The Journal of V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University. Issues of Political Science, 44, 15-18. https://doi.org/10.26565/2220-8089-2023-44-02
Bekheet, H. N. (2022). “The role of water situation in Iraq in exacerbating the problem of food security in Iraq”. Akkad Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies, 1(1), 39–51. https://doi.org/10.55202/ajms.v1i1.40
Burris, S. (2006). “From security to health”. In J. Wood & B. Dupont (Eds.), Democracy, society and the governance of security (pp. 196-216). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511489358.010
"Climate change crisis in Iraq: A study in political geography”. (2024). Journal of University of Raparin, 11(3), 737-762. https://doi.org/10.26750/Vol(11).No(3).Paper30
Delon Omrow, D., Anagnostou, M., Cassey, P., Cooke, S. J., Jordan, S., Kirkwood, A. E., MacNeill, T., Mirrlees, T., Pedersen, I., Stoett, P., & Tlusty, M. F. (2024). “Compliance and enforcement in a brave new (green) world: Best practices and technologies for green governance”. FACETS, 9, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2023-0105
Fahrudin, A., Albert, W. K. G., Esterilita, M., Rochman, U. H., Utami, N. N., Rauf, S. H. A., … Wardani, L. M. I. (2024). “Impact of climate change on mental health among vulnerable groups: A systematic literature review”. Journal of Lifestyle and SDGs Review, 5(1), e02671. https://doi.org/10.47172/2965-730X.SDGsReview.v5.n01.pe02671
Holmen, A. K. T. (2011). “Governance networks in city-regions: In the spirit of democratic accountability?” Public Policy and Administration, 26(4), 399-418. https://doi.org/10.1177/0952076710375773
Ieraci, G. (2021). “Power in office: Presidents, governments, and parliaments in the institutional design of contemporary democracies”. Constitutional Political Economy, 32, 413–430. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-020-09318-2
Jassem, R. A. (2025). “Employing Turkish water security policies and their repercussions on the Arab region: Iraq and Syria as an example”. Dirasat: Human and Social Sciences, 52(3), 6847. https://doi.org/10.35516/hum.v52i3.6847
Kitschelt, H., & Wilkinson, S. I. (2007). “Citizen–politician linkages: An introduction”. In H. Kitschelt & S. I. Wilkinson (Eds.), Patrons, clients and policies: Patterns of democratic accountability and political competition (pp. 1-49). Cambridge University Press.
Kopnina, H. (2014). “Environmental justice and biospheric egalitarianism: Reflecting on a normative-philosophical view of human-nature relationship”. Earth Perspectives, 1, 8. https://doi.org/10.1186/2194-6434-1-8
Lu, C., & Yan, T. (2022). “Revisiting Chinese political culture: The historical politics approach”. Chinese Political Science Review, 7, 160–180. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-021-00208-y
Ly, N. T. B. (2025). “Theorizing legitimacy in migration research”. International Migration Review. https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183251325177
Mazzone, L. (2020). “A negative theory of justice: Towards a critical theory of power relations”. Theoria, 67(164), 86-117. https://doi.org/10.3167/th.2020.6716404
Muhammad Mujtaba Asad, M. M., & Zia, S. (2025). “Impact media portrays on police legitimacy in times of emergencies: A global perspective”. International Journal of Emergency Services, 14(1), 20–40. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJES-05-2024-0036
Oxford Analytica. (2021). “Water scarcity will boost Turkey-Syria-Iraq tensions”. Expert Briefings. https://doi.org/10.1108/OXAN-DB264557
Pokornyi, Z., & Barczikay, T. (2025). “The role of legitimacy in shaping tax morale: The case of Hungary”. East European Politics and Societies. https://doi.org/10.1177/08883254251324435
Powel, B. (2024). “The ‘Mesopotamian trap’: From the ‘first’ international to dynamic multiplicity”. International Theory, 16(3), 321-353. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1752971924000046
Ravinandrasana, V. P., & Franzke, C. L. E. (2025). “The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene”. Nature Communications, 16, 8281. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63784-6
Raza, M. A. A., Yan, C., & Bilal, M. (2022). “Impact of governance and state fragility determinants on state legitimacy in emerging Asian economies”. Governance and Society Review, 1(1), 65-87. https://doi.org/10.32350/gsr.11.05
Sahib, H. S., & Feng, Q. (2025). “A study of the shrinkage of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers and its impact on water resources and agriculture in Iraq”. European Journal of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, 4(1), 20-28. https://ejtas.com/index.php/journal/article/view/1728
Schmelzle, C. (2012, January 16). “Evaluating governance: Effectiveness and legitimacy in areas of limited statehood”. SFB-Governance Working Paper, No. 26. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1986017
Song, Y., Joo, J., Kim, H., & Park, M. (2024). “Development and applicability evaluation of damage scale analysis techniques for agricultural drought”. Water, 16(10), 1342. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16101342
Steffek, J., & Ferretti, M. P. (2009). “Accountability or 'good decisions'? The competing goals of civil society participation in international governance”. Global Society, 23(1), 37–57. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600820802556736
Szulecka, J., & Szulecki, K. (2022). “Between domestic politics and ecological crises: (De)legitimization of Polish environmentalism”. Environmental Politics, 31(7), 1214–1243. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2019.1674541
Urry, J. (2015). “Climate change and society”. In J. Michie & C. L. Cooper (Eds.), Why the social sciences matter (pp. 45-62). Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137269928_4
von Allwörden, L. (2024). “When contestation legitimizes: The norm of climate change action and the US contesting the Paris Agreement”. International Relations, 39(1), 52-75. https://doi.org/10.1177/00471178231222874
Yousuf, M. A., Rapantova, N., & Younis, J. H. (2018). “Sustainable water management in Iraq (Kurdistan) as a challenge for governmental responsibility”. Water, 10(11), 1651. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111651
Zhang, C. (2024). “Race, gender, and Occidentalism in global reactionary discourses”. Review of International Studies, 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0260210524000299