From Party Divisions to Regional Pressures: Factors behind the Failure of the Kurdistan Region Independence Referendum

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor of Department of International Relations, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. (Corresponding author).

2 Associate Professor of Department of International Relations, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

3 PhD student in International relations, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of intra-party divisions within the Kurdistan Region of Iraq on the failure of the 2017 independence referendum. Centered on the strategic rivalry between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the research argues that such competition prevented the formation of internal cohesion and a unified strategy for achieving independence, ultimately undermining the political and administrative capacity of Kurdish leadership. Drawing on Barry Buzan’s Regional Security Complex Theory as the primary analytical framework and Carl Schmitt’s Concept of the Political as a complementary perspective, the study explores how the interaction of domestic rivalries with regional pressures from Iran and Turkey—and the limited support of global powers such as the United States and Israel—eroded political legitimacy and reduced public participation. Methodologically, the research employs a qualitative document analysis and case study approach, integrating both local and international sources. The findings support the hypothesis that the historical rivalry between the KDP and PUK, compounded by regional constraints and weak international backing, diminished Kurdish unity and coordination, contributing significantly to the referendum’s failure. The study concludes that internal cohesion, inter-party cooperation, and the strategic management of regional and international relations are critical prerequisites for the success of independence movements. Even with a degree of popular support, deep-seated partisan divisions and external pressures can severely limit the realization of independence aspirations.

Keywords

References

اسلامی، مسعود؛ شمس‌آبادی، علی. (1397). «عوامل ناکامی همه‌پرسی جدایی اقلیم کردستان عراق». فصلنامۀ بین‌المللی ژئوپلیتیک، 14(51)، 63-94. https://journal.iag.ir/article_69797.html?utm
افضلی، رسول؛ کامران دستجردی، حسن؛ مرادی، اسکندر؛ رنجبری چیچوران، کمال. (1402). «تحلیل ژئوپلیتیک عوامل سیاسی-امنیتی مؤثر بر همگرایی اقلیم کردستان عراق با ایران در مقیاس‌های جغرافیایی». پژوهش‌های جغرافیای انسانی، 55(4)، 263-285. https://sid.ir/paper/1160158/fa?utm
پوراحمدی میبدی، حسین؛ قیاسی، صابر. (1399). «رویکرد سیاست خارجی ایران و ترکیه به مسئلۀ استقلال کردستان عراق». فصلنامۀ پژوهش‌های روابط بین‌الملل، 10(2)، 7-32.  https://www.iisajournals.ir/article_113621.html?utml
حق‌مرادی، محمد. (2019). «ضرورت تأسیس دیگری در گفتمان هویت کردی». پولیتیا، 2(4)، 4-25. https://serbexoyi.com/files/74.pdf
ساعدپناه، عرفان. (1399). روند گرایشات استقلال‌خواهانۀ کردها در ایران پس از رفراندوم استقلال اقلیم کردستان. پایان‌نامۀ کارشناسی‌ارشد، دانشگاه خوارزمی.
ساعدی‌پور، جمال. (1398). تأثیر شناسایی دولت‌ها بر قضیۀ همه‌پرسی استقلال اقلیم کردستان عراق. پایان‌نامۀ کارشناسی‌ارشد، دانشگاه خوارزمی.
سمیعی اصفهانی، علیرضا؛ فرحمند، سارا. (1398). «سناریوهای همه‌پرسی استقلال کردستان عراق». پژوهش‌نامۀ ایرانی سیاست بین‌الملل، 7(2)، 133-166. https://doi.org/10.22067/jipr.v7i2.70070
سورانی، شاخوان؛ روحی، عباد؛ عبداللهی، جوانمیر. (1401). «مشروعیت رفراندوم 2017 استقلال اقلیم کردستان از منظر قانون اساسی عراق و حقوق بین‌الملل». فصلنامۀ سیاست جهانی، 11(1)، 253-278. https://interpolitics.guilan.ac.ir/article_7075.html
شیاری، علی؛ فرهنگی، محمدحسین. (1399). «واکاوی استقلال اقلیم کردستان عراق با تأکید بر نقش هریک از قدرت‌های منطقه‌ای و فرامنطقه‌ای». مجلس و راهبرد، 27(101)، 271-294. https://nashr.majles.ir/article_352.html
قادرزاده، امید؛ علی‌محمد، زمناکو. (1400). «صورت‌بندی گفتمانی امر سیاسی در احزاب اقلیم کردستان عراق». جامعه‌شناسی سیاسی جهان اسلام، 9(19)، 29-54. https://doi.org/10.22070/iws.2022.13800.2023
مهرنو، سیامک. (1399). احزاب سیاسی در اقلیم کردستان عراق: رویکردهای داخلی و خارجی (2018-2011). پایان‌نامۀ کارشناسی‌ارشد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی.
نصرالدین پورگویا، هنگامه؛ رضایی، علیرضا؛ صالحی، عباس. (1402). «بررسی و تحلیل و تبیین بحران‌های داخلی و خارجی در دولت اقلیم کردستان عراق». جغرافیا (برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای)، 13(51)، 475-491. https://www.jgeoqeshm.ir/article_185142.html
ولدبیگی، آرام؛ نیاکویی، امیر. (1402). «سیاست خارجی ایالات متحدۀ آمریکا در قبال رفراندوم استقلال اقلیم کردستان عراق در سال 2017». فصلنامۀ مطالعات خاورمیانه، 30(2)، 81-104. https://cmess.sinaweb.net/article_180239.html
References
Abbasi, E., Salehi, S. J., & Salehi, M. (2022). “The Oil Policy and Independence of the Kurdistan Regional Government”. Iran and the Caucasus, 26(2), 183-197. https://www.academia.edu/83997898
Afzali, R., Kamran-Dastjerdi, H., Moradi, E., & Ranjbari Chichoran, K. (2023). “A geopolitical analysis of political–security factors affecting the convergence of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region with Iran across geographical scales”. Quarterly Journal of Human Geography Research, 55(4), 263–285. [In Persian]. https://sid.ir/paper/1160158/fa?utm
Ahmed, F. M., Hassan, M. A., & Saeed, D. A. (2022). “The referendum of the Kurdistan Regional Government and its relationship to the principle of self-determination in public international law”. The International and Political Journal, 1(50), 313-342. https://ipj.uomustansiriyah.edu.iq/index.php/political/article/view/111
Al-Asyura, M. K. Z., & Basyar, M. H. (2022). “Turkey and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Relations: A Soft Power Approach towards Kurdish Question”. Andalas Journal of International Studies (AJIS), 11(1), 78-93. https://doi.org/10.25077/ajis.11.1.78-93.2022
Al-Hadid, H. M. S., & Hamood, A. L. W. A. (2021). “Iraqi internal positions of a referendum Kurdistan Region and its implications”. Tikrit University Journal for Rights, 6(2), 71-95. https://search.emarefa.net/ar/detail/BIM-1436041
Alkış, M., & Sever, A. (2024). “Which Legitimization for de facto States? The Case of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq”. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 1(2), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2024.2379658
Ameen, H. D. H. (2023). “Iraqi Neighbors’ stance on Kurdish independence referendum of 2017: Iran and Turkey”. Journal of Kurdistani for Strategic Studies, 2023(2), 205-214. https://journal.lfu.edu.krd/JKSS/issue/view/163
Asgarkhani, A., Padervand, M., & Hoshmand Nanekaran, D. (2021). “Russia's Foreign Policy Strategy Refarding the Referendum in Iraqi State of Kurdistan”. Security Horizons, 14(50), 153-173.
Buzan, B. (1991). People, states and fear: An agenda for international security studies in the post-cold war era. Harvester Wheatsheaf.
Cengiz, S. (2022). “Dynamics of Saudi Arabia–KRG Relations: From 2003 Iraq War to 2017 Referendum and Beyond”. Contemporary Review of the Middle East, 9(3), 321-340. https://doi.org/10.1177/23477989221099342
Chomani, K. (2024). “Corruption and Kurdish Nationalism: A Case Study of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq”. Polish Journal of Political Science, 10(2), 68-95. https://centrum.tdb.uw.edu.pl/
Eslami, M., & Shamsabadi, A. (2018). “Factors behind the failure of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region’s secession referendum”. International Quarterly of Geopolitics, 14(51), 63–94. [In Persian]. https://journal.iag.ir/article_69797.html?utm
Ghahriyan, M. (2024). “The independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan: the position of Egypt and the coverage in Egyptian online media”. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 1(2), 1-18. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13530194.2024.2311980
Haghmoradi, M. (2019). “The necessity of establishing the "Other" in Kurdish identity discourse”. Politeia, 2(4), 4-25. [In Persian]. https://serbexoyi.com/files/74.pdf
Hama, H. H. (2021). “Kurdish–Iraqi state conflict (de‐) escalation following the independence referendum”. Digest of Middle East Studies, 30(3), 221-236. https://doi.org/10.1111/dome.12240
Hama, H. H., Mamshai, F. H. A., & Mawlood, F. A. (2024). “Securitization of the 2017 Kurdistan independence referendum”. Ethnicities, 1(46), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1177/14687968241284432
Hussein, N. (2022). Kurdistan Regional Government: Internal Constrains and Failed Quest for Independence. Master thesis, Charles University. https://dspace.cuni.cz/handle/20.500.11956/175991
Koç, E. (2021). “Flactuating Relations between Iran and the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government Since 1958”. Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(27), 304-319. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/igdirsosbilder/issue/66870/960000
Maghdid, R. S. (2023). “Kurdistan Regional Government’s Natural Resources Policy Formulation and Implementation Process: Economic, Political and Legal Influences Kurdistan Regional Government Oil Policy”. Koya University Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 6(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.14500/kujhss.v6n1y2023.pp1-12
Malihi, S. M. (2021). “Positions of regional and international countries regarding the 2017 Kurdish referendum”. Contemporary Political Studies, 12(3), 183-206.
McDowall, D. (2021). A Modern History of the Kurds (4th ed.). Bloomsbury Academic.
Mehreno, S. (2020). Political parties in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Domestic and foreign approaches (2011–2018). Master’s thesis, Allameh Tabataba’i University. [In Persian].
Mirhanoglu, F. (2023). “Oil or State? The Role of the Oil in the Recognition of Kurdish Statehood in Iraqi Kurdistan”. Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism, 23(3), 283-298.
Muhamad, G. M. (2024). “Political Economy of State Formation in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Challenges and Opportunities”. Resource Management Performance: A Sectoral Analysis in the Post-Conflict Kurdistan Region of Iraq, 1(1), 15-38.
Mustafa, S. D. (2021). “Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum: political parties, opportunity and timing”. British journal of Middle Eastern studies, 48(5), 890-907. Https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2020.1843499
Nasr al-Din Pourguya, H., Rezaei, A., & Salehi, A. (2023). “Identifying and analyzing internal and external crises in the Kurdistan Regional Government”. Geography (Regional Planning), 13(51), 475–491. [In Persian]. https://www.jgeoqeshm.ir/article_185142.html
Navasardyan, N., & Manukyan, T. (2023). “Resumption of the Kurdish card in Iranian-Iraqi relations: Complex interplay, pre-referendum realities”. National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia Institute of Oriental Studies, 1-100. https://doi.org/10.52837/2579-2970-2023.12.2-31
Nicola, S. L. (2024). “A Tale of Two States? The Kurdistan Region of Iraq Caught Between Conflict and Cooperation with Central Iraq (1991–2020)”. Polish Journal of Political Science, 10(2), 96-126. https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/55992822
O’Driscoll, D., & Baser, B. (2019). “Independence referendums and nationalist rhetoric: the Kurdistan Region of Iraq”. Third World Quarterly, 40(11), 2016-2034.
Owtram, F. (2023). “The Evolution of Kurdistan-Iraq’s Paradiplomacy: Causes and Constraints”. Between Diplomacy and Non-Diplomacy: Foreign relations of Kurdistan-Iraq and Palestine, 1(2), 29-51. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-09756-0_3
Park, B., Jongerden, J., Owtram, F., & Yoshioka, A. (2024). “On the independence referendum in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and disputed territories in 2017”. Kurdish Studies Archive, 239-257. https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004706781_014
Pashang, A., Barzagar, K., & Naqibzadeh, A. (2024). “The impact of international and regional events and trends on increasing the role and demand of the Kurds in Iraq (1991-2017)”. Geopolitics Quarterly, 20(73), 57-81. [In Persian].
Pourahmadi Meybodi, H., & Ghiyasi, S. (2020). “Iran and Turkey’s foreign policy approaches toward the issue of Iraqi Kurdistan independence”. International Relations Research Quarterly, 10(2), 7–32. [In Persian]. https://www.iisajournals.ir/article_113621.html?utml
Qader, S. S. (2022). “The constitutionality of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region's Referendum to secede”. Qalaaizanist Journal, 7(4), 952-971. https://journal.lfu.edu.krd/qj/article/view/2022-7-4-952
Qaderzadeh, O., & Ali Mohammad, Z. (2021). “Discursive formation of the political in the parties of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq”. Journal of Political Sociology of the Islamic World, 9(19), 29–54. [In Persian]. https://iws.shahed.ac.ir/article_3653.html
Reuters. (2017, September 13). “Israel backs Kurdish independence vote in Iraq”. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com
Saedipour, J. (2019). The impact of state recognition on the 2017 independence referendum of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Master’s thesis, Kharazmi University. [In Persian].
Saedpanah, E. (2020). The trend of secessionist tendencies among Iranian Kurds after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum. Master’s thesis, Kharazmi University. [In Persian].
Salam, D. (2024). “The interrelationship between sovereignty, state building, and good governance: the case of the Kurdistan region”. Democratization, 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2024.2382345
Samiei Esfahani, A., & Farahmand, S. (2019). “Scenarios of the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum”. Iranian Journal of International Politics Research, 7(2), 133–166. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22067/jipr.v7i2.70070
Schmitt, C. (2007). The Concept of the Political. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Shiyari, A., & Farhangi, M. H. (2020). “Analysis of Iraqi Kurdistan's independence by emphasizing the role of each regional and extra-regional powers”. Majlis and Rahbord, 27(101), 271-294. [In Persian]. https://nashr.majles.ir/article_352.html
Sourani, Sh., Rouhi, E., & Abdollahi, J. (2022). “The legitimacy of the 2017 Kurdistan Region independence referendum under the Iraqi Constitution and international law”. Global Politics Quarterly, 11(1), 253–278. [In Persian]. https://interpolitics.guilan.ac.ir/article_7075.html
Tayib, D. M. S., & Muhammad, I. R. (2024). “A Macrostructure Analysis of the Discourse of the Iraqi House of Representatives on Kurdistan Independence Referendum”. Academic Journal of Nawroz University, 13(2), 1324-1332. https://journals.nawroz.edu.krd/index.php/ajnu/article/view/2723
Times of Israel. (2017, September 26). “Erdogan urges Israel to reconsider support for Kurdish referendum. Times of Israel. Retrieved from https://www.timesofisrael.com
Waladbeigi, A., & Niakoei, A. (2023). “U.S. foreign policy toward the 2017 Iraqi Kurdistan Region independence referendum”. Middle East Studies Quarterly, 30(2), 81–104. [In Persian]. https://cmess.sinaweb.net/article_180239.htm
Yıldırım, Z. (2022). An Overview of Turkey-KRG Relations After the 2017 Independence Referendum Initiative. From Securitizaton to Compartmentalization, Master's thesis, Middle East Technical University. https://open.metu.edu.tr/handle/11511/98837

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 27 September 2025
  • Revise Date: 20 November 2025
  • Accept Date: 31 May 2026

Share

How to cite

Statistics