تبیین سقوط نظام سیاسی سوریه از منظر اقتصاد سیاسی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات منطقه‌ای، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران (نویسندۀ مسئول).

2 دانشیار روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

این مقاله به بررسی تحولات سوریه از سال ۲۰۱۱ می‌پردازد و تعامل بین اقتصاد سیاسی و فروپاشی دولت را تحلیل می‌کند. با شروع و ادامۀ ناآرامی‌های اجتماعی و سیاسی در سوریه، اقتصاد این کشور مانند دیگر حوزه‌ها آسیب جدی و شدیدی دید که به فروپاشی ساختارهای دولتی و تعمیق شکاف‌های اجتماعی، اقتصادی، سیاسی و امنیتی منجر شد. هرچند در مرحلۀ نخست، به‌رغم از دست دادن بخش قابل‌توجهی از کنترل مناطق و آسیب‌پذیری جدی از سوی رژیم حاکم، بقای آن حفظ شده بود، اما 8 دسامبر 2024 نقطۀ عطفی در تاریخ کشور سوریه بود. گسترش سریع مواضع و پیشروی قابل‌توجه شورشیان و معارضان حکومت در کمتر از 12 روز به سقوط حکومت 54سالۀ خاندان اسد در این کشور منجر شد. هدف اصلی این پژوهش واکاوی و ارزیابی تأثیر بحران اقتصادی ناشی از جنگ بر پویایی‌های سیاسی و ساختارهای قدرت در سوریه است. سؤال اصلی تحقیق این است که چگونه فروپاشی اقتصادی ناشی از جنگ به تضعیف و فروپاشی ساختارهای دولتی، تحولات سیاسی و سقوط رژیم در سوریه منجر شد. در پاسخ، فرضیه این‌گونه مطرح می‌شود که بحران اقتصادی ناشی از جنگ ـ از طریق فرسایش مشروعیت سیاسی دولت، سرمایه‌داری رفاقتی، فساد ساختاری، تورم افسارگسیخته، کاهش قابلیت‌های مالی و از بین رفتن زیرساخت‌های حیاتی و نارضایتی عمومی ـ بی‌ثباتی سیاسی را تشدید کرده و شکاف‌های اجتماعی را گسترش داده بود که در نهایت باعث فروپاشی دولت شد. این تحقیق با استفاده از روش‌شناسی تبیینی و با داده‌های جمع‌آوری‌شده از منابع کتابخانه‌ای و وب‌سایت‌های تخصصی انجام شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

مراجع

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زیبائی، مهدی؛ نجفی، شهلا. (1404). «سقوط نظام سیاسی سوریه در پرتو نسل چهارم نظریۀ انقلاب». انقلاب‌پژوهی، 3(5)، 61-82. https://doi.org/10.22034/fademo.2025.514169.1093
کامت، ملانی؛ دیوان، ایشاک؛ ریچاردز؛ آلان؛ واتربری، جان. (1396). اقتصاد سیاسی خاورمیانه، ترجمۀ فریبرز ارغوانی پیرسلامی و سحر پیران‌خو، تهران: نشر مخاطب.
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نورث، داگلاس؛ والیس، جان‌جوزف؛ وینگاست، بارس‌آر. (1396). خشونت و نظم‌های اجتماعی: چارچوب مفهومی برای تفسیر تاریخ ثبت‌شدۀ بشر، ترجمۀ جعفر خیرخواهان، تهران: نشر روزنه.
نیاکویی، سید امیر. (1391). کالبدشکافی انقلاب‌های معاصر در جهان عرب، تهران: نشر میزان.
نیاکویی، سید امیر. (1399). زمستان عربی و معمای دموکراسی در خاورمیانه، تهران: نشر مخاطب.
نیاکویی، سید امیر؛ موسوی کردمیری، سید حسین. (1403). «چرایی نتایج متفاوت منازعۀ قدرت در سوریه پس از بهار عربی: از جنگ داخلی تا سقوط حکومت بشار اسد». پژوهش‌های روابط بین‌الملل، 14(4)، 173-206. https://doi.org/10.22034/irr.2025.499126.2652
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Cheung, F., Kube, A., Tay, L., Diener, E., Jackson, J., Lucas, R. E., … & Leung, G. M. (2020). “The impact of the Syrian conflict on population well-being”. Nature Communications, 11(1), 3899. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17369-0.pdf
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Danish Refugee Council. (2024, March 16). “After 13 years of war, Syria's catastrophic economy is pushing people beyond desperation”. https://drc.ngo/resources/news/after-13-years-of-war-syria-s-catastrophic-economy-is-pushing-people-beyond-desperation
ESCWA United Nations. (2025, January 20). “Syria at the crossroads: New ESCWA-UNCTAD report warns of economic ruin, pointing to potential pathways to stability”. https://www.unescwa.org/news/syria-crossroads-new-escwa-unctad-report-warns-economic-ruin-pointing-potential-pathways
Haid, H. (2023, July 3). “Cashing in on Syria's crony capitalism: The timing of the asset seizures strongly suggests a regime desire to bolster its political position in the region, specifically with Iraq”. The Arab Weekly. https://thearabweekly.com/cashing-syrias-crony-capitalism
Kešeljević, A., & Spruk, R. (2024). “Estimating the effects of Syrian civil war”. Empirical Economics, 66(2), 671-703. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00181-023-02470-2.pdf
Kirsanli, F. (2023). “Crony capitalism and corruption in the Middle East and North Africa”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, 68, 9-19. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2023-1210965
Kozul-Wright, A. (2025, January 8). “Rebuilding Syria's economy: Can stability return after war?” Aljazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/1/8/rebuilding-syrias-economy-can-stability-return-after-war
Madadi, H., Abazari, M., & Ahmadi, H. (2024). “Investigating the relationship between drought and the start of the war in Syria using the theory of relative deprivation”. Research Political Geography Quarterly, 8(4), 142-160. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22067/pg.2024.84866.1243
Makki, D. (2023, August 16). “Syria's economic freefall continues despite Arab League return”. Middle East Institute. https://www.mei.edu/publications/syrias-economic-freefall-continues-despite-arab-league-return
Mehchy, Z., Haid, H., & Khatib, L. (2020, November). Assessing control and power dynamics in Syria: De facto authorities and state institutions. Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2020-11/2020-11-11-control-power-syria-mehchy-haid-khatib_0.pdf
Mehchy, Z., Hal Ali, H., & Alnakib, S. (2022). Mechanism of exploitation: Economic and social changes in Syria during the conflict. The Day After (with support of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung). https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/beirut/19603-20221017.pdf
Mounier-Kuhn, A. (2025, January 14). “Syrian economy on its knees”. Monde Diplomatique. https://mondediplo.com/2025/01/03syria-box
Niakooee, S. A. (2012). The anatomy of contemporary Arab revolutions. Mizan Legal Foundation. [In Persian].
Niakooee, S. A. (2020). Arab winter and democracy dilemma in the Middle East. Mokhatab Publication. [In Persian].
Niakooee, S. A., & Mousavi Kordmiri, S. H. (2025). “The reasons behind the different outcomes of power struggle in Syria after the Arab Spring: From the civil war to the fall of the Assad's regime”. International Relations Researches, 14(4), 173-206. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22034/irr.2025.499126.2652
Niang, M. T. (2024, April 17). “The war economy of Syria”. Michigan Journal of Economics (University of Michigan Department of Economics). https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/mje/2024/04/17/the-war-economy-of-syria/
North, D. C., Wallis, J. J., & Weingast, B. R. (2017). Violence and social orders: A conceptual framework for interpreting recorded human history (J. Khairkhahan & R. Majidzadeh, Trans.). Rozaneh Publication. [In Persian].
Pradhan, P. K. (2017). Arab Spring and sectarian faultlines in West Asia: Bahrain, Yemen and Syria. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. https://www.idsa.in/publisher/book/arab-spring-and-sectarian-faultlines-in-west-asia-bahrain-yemen-and-syria-2/
Rad Goudarzi, M. (2019). “Climate changing and agricultural policies effects on formation of Syria civil war”. World Politics, 8(2), 41-66. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22124/wp.2019.3683
Resmic, M. (2024, March 12). The Syrian Arab Republic: Corruption and anti-corruption. Transparency International.
Shaar, K., & Heydemann, S. (2024, August 26). “Networked authoritarianism and economic resilience in Syria: Assad's emerging network of businesses helps him survive amid economic collapse”. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/networked-authoritarianism-and-economic-resilience-in-syria/
Siham, A. (2021). “The role of the Syrian business elite in the Syrian conflict: A class narrative”. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 49(3), 433-445. https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2021.1920210
Steiner, A. (2024, December 12). UNDP Administrator's statement on Syria. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/arab-states/speeches/undp-administrators-statement-syria
World Bank Group. (2022, October 20). The World Bank in Syrian Arab Republic. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/syria/overview#1
World Bank Group. (2024, October 10). Macro poverty outlook for Syrian Arab Republic: October 2024. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099617210152414596/idu1e896291c1751614c03189551eadb96c56942
Zibaei, M., & Najafi, S. (2025). “The collapse of the Syrian political system in light of the fourth generation of revolutionary theory”. The Revolutionary Research, 3(5), 61-82. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22034/fademo.2025.514169.1093
رادگودرزی، معصومه. (1398). «تأثیر تغییرات آب و هوایی و سیاست‌های کشاورزی بر شکل‌گیری زمینه‌های جنگ داخلی سوریه». سیاست جهانی، 8(2)، 41-66. https://doi.org/10.22124/wp.2019.3683
زیبائی، مهدی؛ نجفی، شهلا. (1404). «سقوط نظام سیاسی سوریه در پرتو نسل چهارم نظریۀ انقلاب». انقلاب‌پژوهی، 3(5)، 61-82. https://doi.org/10.22034/fademo.2025.514169.1093
کامت، ملانی؛ دیوان، ایشاک؛ ریچاردز؛ آلان؛ واتربری، جان. (1396). اقتصاد سیاسی خاورمیانه، ترجمۀ فریبرز ارغوانی پیرسلامی و سحر پیران‌خو، تهران: نشر مخاطب.
مددی، حجت‌الله؛ اباذری، مرتضی؛ احمدی، حسین. (1402). «بررسی ارتباط بین خشکسالی و شروع جنگ در سوریه با استفاده از نظریۀ محرومیت نسبی». پژوهش‌های جغرافیای سیاسی، 8(4)، 142-160. https://doi.org/10.22067/pg.2024.84866.1243
نورث، داگلاس؛ والیس، جان‌جوزف؛ وینگاست، بارس‌آر. (1396). خشونت و نظم‌های اجتماعی: چارچوب مفهومی برای تفسیر تاریخ ثبت‌شدۀ بشر، ترجمۀ جعفر خیرخواهان، تهران: نشر روزنه.
نیاکویی، سید امیر. (1391). کالبدشکافی انقلاب‌های معاصر در جهان عرب، تهران: نشر میزان.
نیاکویی، سید امیر. (1399). زمستان عربی و معمای دموکراسی در خاورمیانه، تهران: نشر مخاطب.
نیاکویی، سید امیر؛ موسوی کردمیری، سید حسین. (1403). «چرایی نتایج متفاوت منازعۀ قدرت در سوریه پس از بهار عربی: از جنگ داخلی تا سقوط حکومت بشار اسد». پژوهش‌های روابط بین‌الملل، 14(4)، 173-206. https://doi.org/10.22034/irr.2025.499126.2652
References
Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity and poverty. Crown Publishing Group. https://ia801506.us.archive.org/27/items/WhyNationsFailTheOriginsODaronAcemoglu/Why-Nations-Fail_-The-Origins-o-Daron-Acemoglu.pdf
Alexander, B. (2021, February 18). Syria's economic collapse and its impact on the most vulnerable. Center for Strategic International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/syrias-economic-collapse-and-its-impact-most-vulnerable
Ali, N., Din, J. U., Kousar Ali, D. M. I., & Azhar, M. (2024). “The root causes of the Syrian crisis: Analyzing internal and external factors”. Remittances Review, 9, 211-229. https://doi.org/10.33282/rr.vx9i4.11
Aligica, P., & Tarko, V. (2014). “Crony capitalism: Rent seeking, institutions and ideology”. Kyklos, 67(2), 156-176. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/kykl.12048
Al-Saeed, A., & El-Khalil, Z. (2024, May 24). Syria: Growth contraction deepens and the welfare of Syrian households deteriorates. World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2024/05/24/syria-growth-contraction-deepens-and-the-welfare-of-syrian-households-deteriorates
Bertelsmann Stiftung. (2024). Syria country report 2024. Bertelmann Transformation Index (BTI). https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/SYR#pos7
Cammett, M., Diwan, I., Rechards, A., & Waterbury, J. (2017). A political economy of the Middle East (F. Argavani & S. Pirankhoo, Trans.). Mokhatab Publication. [In Persian].
Cheung, F., Kube, A., Tay, L., Diener, E., Jackson, J., Lucas, R. E., … & Leung, G. M. (2020). “The impact of the Syrian conflict on population well-being”. Nature Communications, 11(1), 3899. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17369-0.pdf
Daher, J. (2017, November 21). “Crony capitalism and federalism in Syria's reconstruction: Interview with Joseph Daher (K. Alhayek, Interviewer)”. Salon Syria. https://www.salonsyria.com/crony-capitalism-and-federalism-in-syrias-reconstruction-interview-with-joseph-daher/
Daher, J., & Mehchy, Z. (2025). Syria's economic transition: From kleptocracy to Islamic neoliberalism in a war-torn economy. PeaceRep: The Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform, School of Law, University of Edinburgh. https://era.ed.ac.uk/handle/1842/43106
Danish Refugee Council. (2024, March 16). “After 13 years of war, Syria's catastrophic economy is pushing people beyond desperation”. https://drc.ngo/resources/news/after-13-years-of-war-syria-s-catastrophic-economy-is-pushing-people-beyond-desperation
ESCWA United Nations. (2025, January 20). “Syria at the crossroads: New ESCWA-UNCTAD report warns of economic ruin, pointing to potential pathways to stability”. https://www.unescwa.org/news/syria-crossroads-new-escwa-unctad-report-warns-economic-ruin-pointing-potential-pathways
Haid, H. (2023, July 3). “Cashing in on Syria's crony capitalism: The timing of the asset seizures strongly suggests a regime desire to bolster its political position in the region, specifically with Iraq”. The Arab Weekly. https://thearabweekly.com/cashing-syrias-crony-capitalism
Kešeljević, A., & Spruk, R. (2024). “Estimating the effects of Syrian civil war”. Empirical Economics, 66(2), 671-703. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00181-023-02470-2.pdf
Kirsanli, F. (2023). “Crony capitalism and corruption in the Middle East and North Africa”. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, 68, 9-19. https://doi.org/10.26650/JECS2023-1210965
Kozul-Wright, A. (2025, January 8). “Rebuilding Syria's economy: Can stability return after war?” Aljazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/1/8/rebuilding-syrias-economy-can-stability-return-after-war
Madadi, H., Abazari, M., & Ahmadi, H. (2024). “Investigating the relationship between drought and the start of the war in Syria using the theory of relative deprivation”. Research Political Geography Quarterly, 8(4), 142-160. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22067/pg.2024.84866.1243
Makki, D. (2023, August 16). “Syria's economic freefall continues despite Arab League return”. Middle East Institute. https://www.mei.edu/publications/syrias-economic-freefall-continues-despite-arab-league-return
Mehchy, Z., Haid, H., & Khatib, L. (2020, November). Assessing control and power dynamics in Syria: De facto authorities and state institutions. Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2020-11/2020-11-11-control-power-syria-mehchy-haid-khatib_0.pdf
Mehchy, Z., Hal Ali, H., & Alnakib, S. (2022). Mechanism of exploitation: Economic and social changes in Syria during the conflict. The Day After (with support of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung). https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/beirut/19603-20221017.pdf
Mounier-Kuhn, A. (2025, January 14). “Syrian economy on its knees”. Monde Diplomatique. https://mondediplo.com/2025/01/03syria-box
Niakooee, S. A. (2012). The anatomy of contemporary Arab revolutions. Mizan Legal Foundation. [In Persian].
Niakooee, S. A. (2020). Arab winter and democracy dilemma in the Middle East. Mokhatab Publication. [In Persian].
Niakooee, S. A., & Mousavi Kordmiri, S. H. (2025). “The reasons behind the different outcomes of power struggle in Syria after the Arab Spring: From the civil war to the fall of the Assad's regime”. International Relations Researches, 14(4), 173-206. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22034/irr.2025.499126.2652
Niang, M. T. (2024, April 17). “The war economy of Syria”. Michigan Journal of Economics (University of Michigan Department of Economics). https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/mje/2024/04/17/the-war-economy-of-syria/
North, D. C., Wallis, J. J., & Weingast, B. R. (2017). Violence and social orders: A conceptual framework for interpreting recorded human history (J. Khairkhahan & R. Majidzadeh, Trans.). Rozaneh Publication. [In Persian].
Pradhan, P. K. (2017). Arab Spring and sectarian faultlines in West Asia: Bahrain, Yemen and Syria. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. https://www.idsa.in/publisher/book/arab-spring-and-sectarian-faultlines-in-west-asia-bahrain-yemen-and-syria-2/
Rad Goudarzi, M. (2019). “Climate changing and agricultural policies effects on formation of Syria civil war”. World Politics, 8(2), 41-66. [In Persian]. https://doi.org/10.22124/wp.2019.3683
Resmic, M. (2024, March 12). The Syrian Arab Republic: Corruption and anti-corruption. Transparency International.
Shaar, K., & Heydemann, S. (2024, August 26). “Networked authoritarianism and economic resilience in Syria: Assad's emerging network of businesses helps him survive amid economic collapse”. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/networked-authoritarianism-and-economic-resilience-in-syria/
Siham, A. (2021). “The role of the Syrian business elite in the Syrian conflict: A class narrative”. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 49(3), 433-445. https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2021.1920210
Steiner, A. (2024, December 12). UNDP Administrator's statement on Syria. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/arab-states/speeches/undp-administrators-statement-syria
World Bank Group. (2022, October 20). The World Bank in Syrian Arab Republic. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/syria/overview#1
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